A study of probability of dying in the stage of HIV in a year without passing to the state of AIDS


Gurprit Grover and Dulumoni Das*

The human immunodeficiency virus/ acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic represents the most serious public health problem in India. There is no denial of the enormity of the problem. The available surveillance data clearly indicates that HIV is prevalent in almost all parts of the country. Hence, knowledge of HIV incidence is important to formulate sensible strategies aimed at controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The objective of this paper is to estimate the probability of dying in the stage of HIV (Grover and Das, 2005) in a year without passing to the state of AIDS (HIV mortality rate). Secondly, a double decrement life table approach (Biswas et al., 2006) has been followed for a cohort of hemophiliacs who were at risk of infection with the AIDS virus. This device consists essentially of two decrements: HIV positive hemophiliacs either depart from the AIDS-free group by eventually developing AIDS or by dying from other causes; those who eventually develop AIDS either remain alive with it until they die from it or die from other causes. The distribution of incubation period of AIDS is based on a two-stage parametric regression model (Brookmeyer and Goedert, 1989), proposed for the analysis of cohort of hemophiliacs.

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