Production prediction of avocado, banana, mango, papaya, pineapple and coffee in Oromia regional state, Ethiopia


Addisu Hailu*

This assessment was designed to generate relevant information on main fruit production and consumption trends and to provide sufficient information and analytics of future fruits production. CSA data and FAOSTAT data from 2015-2021 were used. ARIMA model was used to predict the future points of a time series data of fruits. The avocado production increment from 2014/15 to 2020/21 were 12.7%, -0.15%, 3.1%, 39.98%, 31.7% and 150% in Oromia. Banana production, area coverage, consumption, sale and exports upward trends in Oromia. Mango production was downward trends due to disease and insect pests. Papaya and coffee production trends was volatile trends. Pineapple production trends was increase from time to time. To improve fruits production launching new initiatives to make fruit production and supply chains more sustainable, managing pests and diseases of fruit crops and a fundamental shift toward more nutritious crops in more diversified cropping systems is necessary.

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