Lusajo Mfwango

Tanzania Research and Conservation Organization, Jumbe Mototo Street, Morogoro, Tanzania

Publications

• Research Article   
  Three decades of land use and land cover change and future landscape dynamics in the Morogoro river subcatchment, Tanzania
  Author(s): Badri Mussa Omary*, Edmund Mutayoba, Lusajo Mfwango and Nyemo Chilagane
  
  Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change is a major driver of landscape transformation, influencing ecosystem integrity, hydrological processes, and watershed sustainability. This study assessed three decades of LULC change (1994–2025) and predicted future landscape dynamics (2035–2055) in the Morogoro river subcatchment, Tanzania. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1994, 2005, 2016, and 2025) was classified using the Random Forest algorithm in a GIS environment, while future LULC scenarios were simulated using a Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model. Classification accuracy ranged from 81.15% to 86.87%, with Kappa coefficients between 0.76 and 0.83, and the CA–Markov model achieved a validation Kappa of 0.83, indicating reliable predictive performance. Between 1994 and 2025, built-up land expanded by 322.65% (499–2,111 ha) and cultivated land by 171.. View More»
  

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